Jun 26, 2014

Guesstimate confirms fruit crops survived winter’s hit

The brutal polar vortex that struck much of the country this past winter, including the Midwest, caused enough damage to curb hopes for a second consecutive bumper crop in most areas, but overall predictions were for near average yields on a number of specialty fruit crops in Michigan.

That was the prognosis issued June 25 at the Fruit Crop Guesstimate in Grand Rapids, Mich. – the annual meeting held to estimate the size of Michigan’s coming fruit crops. Organizers said many of the national estimates usually presented at the gathering were not finalized and were yet to be determined.

While winter damage is impacting fruit tree production in some areas of Michigan, the instances of spring frost events were minimal, providing a late but sufficient start to apples, cherries and blueberries.

Andy Janson, a St. Joseph fruit packer and president of the Michigan Frozen Food Packers Association (MFFPA), said most in the industry expect overall yields to be slightly below average.

“In 2013, we had ideal growing conditions,” Janson said. “Results were an above average crop across about every variety. We’re all thankful to have the harsh winter of 2014 behind us. The big question that remains is what did all the snow and frigid temperatures do to the fruit trees and bushes.”

Apples

The guesstimate for the total U.S. apple crop in 2013 was about 250 million bushels, but the 2014 figures were not available.

The estimate for Michigan for 2014 was 27 million bushels, however, the crop is expected to yield somewhat less than that due to winter damage in southwest Michigan, in particular, which will reduce the total in that region from more than 3 million bushels estimated, to as low as 2 million, or as much a 50 percent to 60 percent reduction

A total of 26.3 million bushels statewide was predicted in 2013.

West-central Michigan, the biggest contributor to the state’s apple crop, will yield 20.5 million bushels this year; followed by northwest Michigan (3.2 million); and eastern Michigan (886,000)

In west central Michigan, the growers forecast a yield of slightly more than last year’s bumper crop despite some damage to trees from the cold winter.

“We’ve got a good clean crop coming so far,” said apple grower Mark Zemaitis of the forecast for westcentral Michigan. “Fruit should be of a very good size this year.”

Dave Smeltzer of Per-Clin Orchards said conditions in northwest and eastern Michigan were “harsh and difficult with a slow developing spring, but it allowed us to escape the frost events were normally experience.”

He said there are concerns attributed to last year’s crop stress and tree mortality from winter injury.

“We had two significant events of 25 below and 10 below that impacted mostly on Jon-gold, Empires and Fujis,” Smeltzer said. “We had some tree death unrelated to winter that seems to be impacted in later varieties of McIntosh.”

He said snow depths up to 40 inches impacted trees, with Great Lakes icing being more extensive than in recent memory also affecting the climate.

“We were a full two weeks later on average with bloom on most varieties,” he said.

Cherries

In 2014, the U.S. tart cherry industry will produce about 271 million pounds, according to Perry Hedin, executive director of the Cherry Industry Administrative Board. That is down slightly from an estimated 276 million pounds in 2013, and up from the five-year average of approximately 220 million pounds.

Michigan is expected to produce 191 million pounds of tart cherries in 2014, down from the 208 million pounds estimated in 2013, and up from the three-year average, which is roughly 110 million pounds.

Most of Michigan’s 2014 total, 62.5 million pounds, will come from the northwest portion of the state; 37.6 million from the west-central portion; and 10.1 million from the southwest.

The state’s tart cherry crop will be down from last year despite optimistic reports from the state’s prime cherry growing region in the northwest Lower Peninsula.

Growers in the West Central and Southwest regions said they expect their yields to be down after fruit failed to set despite healthy blossoms and an active bee population.

“We thought we had a good crop coming, but the trees decided not to set that large a crop,” said Brad Moul, of Peterson Farms, Inc.

As for other states, Utah will yield 35 million pounds of tart cherries this year; followed by Washington (24 million); Wisconsin (9.5 million); New York (8.5 million); Oregon (2 million); and Pennsylvania (1 million).

On the same day the Fruit Guesstimate was held, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said the United States tart cherry production is forecast at 264.4 million pounds, down 10 percent from the 2013 production it reported.

The report indicated in Michigan, the largest producing state, the crop is widely varied this year due to colder than normal weather leading to reports of winterkill and freeze damage.

New York and Pennsylvania growers expect smaller than average crops this year. Many growers reported damage due to freezing temperatures during bloom.

In Wisconsin, some respondents reported damage to trees from harsh winter weather. Oregon growers expect an average crop this year. Utah growers are expecting high yields this year.

In Washington, growers reported very good weather and are expecting a significant increase in production from last year.

Michigan sweet cherry growers predicted a 2014 crop of 30 million tons compared to 31.8 million tons last year. Of the processed take, 19,000 tons are anticipated for brine; 10,000 tons for frozen; and 1,000 tons canned. An estimated 1,500 will go to fresh.

In the NASS report, United States sweet cherry production in 2014 is forecast at 326,240 tons, down 2 percent form 2013.

In Michigan, the report stated, development is behind normal due to the long winter and delayed spring. Yield is highly variable throughout the state.

In California, warm and dry winter weather reduced chilling hours. Poor pollination resulted in minimal set and record-low yields. The harvest ended in mid-June.

New York growers expect a smaller than average crop. Many growers indicated that production potential was reduced due to freeze and frost at the time of bloom.

Growers in Idaho, Oregon and Washington reported excellent weather this year. Winter conditions were moderate and warm spring conditions resulted in excellent bloom and good pollination levels.

Blueberries

Michigan’s blueberry growers and processors predicted a smaller crop than last year, mainly due to damage from sub-zero temperatures during the winter. State farmers said they expect to see 82 million pounds this year compared to 114 pounds last year. The estimate approaches 85 percent of the five-year average.

A total of 44 million pounds of fresh product is anticipated in 2014, down from the 47 million pounds estimated in 2013. The 38 million pounds of processed berries expected for 2014, compares to the 67 million pounds of processed estimated in 2013.

“Five years ago if things were like this – coming off the winter we had and other factors, we might not have reached the same guesstimate conclusions,” said southwest Michigan grower Joe Leduc, president of the Michigan Blueberry Advisory Committee. “But the growers’ mentality is from coming off a lower than desirable process price last year and labor seems to be more adequate this year than last year. The mindset is we’ll only be down 3 million on fresh and about 29 million on process.”

Nationally, Leduc said, the crop is expected to be relatively the same as 2013, “with the East being slightly down about 40 million pounds, with the West up probably 50 million pounds. Overall, the North American crop looks like it’s going to be a pretty similar year. There are more acres in the ground.”

– Gary Pullano