Nov 7, 2019
Forecast: Decline in Canadian apple production as a result of adverse weather

The United States will remain the largest exporter of fresh apples, pears and table grapes to the Canadian market in MY 2019/20.

FAS/Ottawa forecasts Canadian production of apples to be down 4% in MY 2019/20 due to adverse weather events.

Canadian production of pears and table grapes is forecast to decrease two and nine percent, respectively. The United States market share of Canadian apple imports will see growth over MY 2018/19 numbers. U.S. pear exports to Canada will also see growth while U.S. fresh table grape exports are forecast to decline.

In MY 2019/20 Canadian imports of fresh apples will see growth while exports will be in decline. FAS/Ottawa forecasts a decline in Canadian apple production as a result of adverse weather conditions predominately in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Pear production is forecast to decline slightly from MY 2018/19. Harvested area will remain stable for MY 2019/20 with production losses attributable to adverse weather.

The United States is forecast to increase fresh pear exports to Canada and will see growth in market share as Canadian consumption of fresh pears is slightly up in MY 2019/20. In MY 2019/20, the United States is forecast to see a decline in exports of fresh table grapes to Canada.

British Columbia was impacted by unfavorable weather events but the BC apple crop is forecast to be average, with less total loss than Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Despite a challenging season, Ontario will remain Canada’s top apple producing province in MY 2019/20. However, given weather challenges, total provincial distribution of apple production will see Ontario’s overall share decline. The two other major apple producing provinces in Canada are Quebec and British Columbia. 90 percent of total Canadian production is grown in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.

Graphic: Distribution of Ontario apple acreage. Source: Ontario Apple Growers

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