Apr 7, 2007

Apple Crop Estimate Below Average

The U.S. apple industry will produce a smaller crop than normal this year, according to the U.S. Apple Association (USApple), which released its 2006 production forecast Aug. 17 in Chicago.

The U.S. crop estimate for 2006 is 221.2 million bushels – down 6 percent from 2005 and down 1 percent from the five-year average. If the estimate holds, it will be the 16th largest crop in U.S. history, said James Cranney, USApple’s vice president.

“It’s well down in terms of size,” he said.

The production forecast included a regional breakdown.

East

The Eastern crop estimate is 52.9 million bushels, down 3 percent from 2005 and about the same as the five-year average.

New York’s estimate is 25 million bushels, up 1 percent from 2005 and up 4 percent from the five-year average. Pennsylvania’s estimate is 10.3 million bushels, down 16 percent from 2005 and 3 percent below the five-year average. In Virginia, the estimate is 6.1 million bushels, down 9 percent from both 2005 and the five-year average. North Carolina’s forecast is 4.3 million bushels, up 39 percent from 2005 and up 31 percent from the five-year average. West Virginia’s forecast is 1.9 million bushels, down 8 percent from 2005 and down 12 percent from the five-year average.

Midwest

The Midwest estimate is 28.3 million bushels, a 6 percent increase from 2005 and a 7 percent increase from the five-year average.

Michigan’s estimate is 19 million bushels, up 2 percent from 2005 and up 4 percent from the five-year average. Ohio’s crop estimate is 2.8 million bushels, up 20 percent from 2005 and up 36 percent from the five-year average. In Wisconsin, the prediction is 1.3 million bushels, 11 percent more than 2005 but 3 percent less than the five-year average.

West

The estimate for the West is 140 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2005 and down 3 percent from the five-year average.

Washington’s crop estimate is 125 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2005 and down 2 percent from the five-year average. California’s prediction is 8 million bushels, down 5 percent from 2005 and down 22 percent from the five-year average. Oregon’s prediction is 3.7 million bushels, up 7 percent from 2005 but down 1 percent from the five-year average.

World

USApple included estimates from other apple-producing regions of the world. The 2006 crop estimate for 25 European countries is 9.5 million tons, down 5 percent from 2005. In China, the world’s leading apple producer, the 2006-07 forecast is 21.1 million metric tons, a 10 percent to 15 percent increase over 2005-06. Canada’s 2006 estimate is 24.9 million bushels, 13 percent less than last year and 8 percent less than the five-year average. Mexico’s estimate is 13.3 million boxes, down 13.9 percent from last year.