Pink Ladies are one of the top-produced U.S. apple varieties that are gaining in production. Photo courtesy of Stemilt.

Oct 7, 2024
Orchard optimism: Strong apple production predicted across major producing states

Following last year’s record production, apple growers expect another high-performing year. For most of the leading apple producing states, production is expected to be lower than the previous season and lower than average.

Apple growers are expected to pack 259.5 million 42-pound bushels for the 2024-25 crop year, a 10% decrease compared to the 2023-24 season’s 288.8 million bushels, but smaller than the 269 million bushel five-year average, according to the U.S. Apple Association (USApple).

Source: US Apple; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Source: US Apple; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

The Outlook Report, released during USApple’s Aug. 14-16 annual conference in Chicago, is based on USDA estimates and data from other producing states not included in USDA analysis. The USDA predicts 282.2 million bushels, 2% lower than to 2023-24.

“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” Chris Gerlach, vice president of insights and analytics for USApple, said in a news release. “Despite various challenges, the resilience and dedication of our growers have led to another promising year for apple production.”

Four of the Top 10 varieties — Granny Smith (No. 3), Cosmic Crisp (No. 7), Pink Lady/Cripps Pink (No. 8), and Envy (No. 10) — saw production gains, while Gala (No. 1), Red Delicious (No. 2), Honeycrisp (No. 4), Fuji (No. 5), Golden Delicious (No. 6) and Rome (No. 9) experienced declines. Cortland, Mutsu/Crispin and Spartan, varieties in the lower regions of the Top 20, also saw production increases.

Washington

The state of Washington highlighted on a map of the U.S.

USApple forecasts Washington to harvest 155 million 42-pound bushel boxes, lower than USDA’s 178.5 million box forecast. Both are smaller than 2023-24’s 181 million bushels and the 167 million bushel box five- year average, but larger than 2022, one of the state’s smallest crops.

The Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA) forecasts the state will harvest 124 million 40-pound fresh packed box equivalents, different from the other forecasts in that WSTFA members were surveyed for fresh packs. In Washington, harvesting began on Aug. 1 and is expected to run through late November. Overall, the state is anticipating a crop of good quality and normal size, comparable to 2020 and 2021 after a below-average 2022 crop, said Jon DeVaney, president for WSTFA.

“Producers are optimistic that this will lead to more orderly marketing conditions of the 2024 crop,” he said.

​​Freezing temperatures earlier in the year reduced expected production in some districts, particularly in north central Washington, though the reductions were not as pronounced as they were for cherries and pears, DeVaney said.

SweeTango apples being harvested by Stemilt. Photo courtesy of Stemilt.

A drought also curtailed water supplies, although it was largely offset by careful management of supplies within irrigation districts and the transfer of some water supply from annually cropped land to perennial crops, he said. Temperatures moderated and precipitation increased in late August, indicating favorable growing conditions through the remaining months of the season, DeVaney said.

Brianna Shales, communications manager with Stemilt Growers in Wenatchee, Washington, noted WSTFA’s forecast is down 9% from the previous season and said USApple’s prediction reflects a 10% national decline in production, which is in line with Washington’s reduced production.

Spring started at normal timing with groves experiencing mild temperatures throughout the spring and early summer. While a July heatwave saw many days of temperatures exceeding 100º F, nights cooled, which helped the trees. Stemilt’s hot weather practices included overhead cooling.

Overall, apples seem to have fared well during the heat, Shales reported. Temperatures during August harvest returned to the 80s and growers didn’t experience any crop altering weather events such as hail, she said.
While too soon to gauge any impacts the heat made on the entire crop, early varieties were showing average size and favorable color, and sunburn wasn’t a significant issue, Shales said.

“Overall, we’ve had great weather during the growing season,” Shales said. “The size of the crop aligns well with current apple demand. There is a good mix of core apples for promotion, and we’re especially excited about the increase in Cosmic Crisp apples, both conventionally and organically, compared to last year. We are most excited about the mix of varieties and organic availability in this crop.”

Michigan

The state of Michigan highlighted on a map of the U.S.

USApple forecasts Michigan to harvest 30.5 million bushels. This is higher than USDA’s 28.6 million bushel forecast. Both are down from 31.9 million bushels in 2023-24 but higher than the state’s 26.1 million bushel five-year average.
Riveridge Produce Marketing in Sparta, Michigan, began harvesting in late August, 10 days earlier than normal. Justin Finkler, operations manager, said the region experienced exceptional harvesting weather.

“With the exception of some isolated areas of hail, quality looks to be good,” Finkler said. “We’ve got a pretty good crop. It’s not quite as large as last year’s crop, but all in all, I think we’re looking forward to a good season. We are going to have fruit that’s picked in good condition and should store really well.”

Because of cold spring temperatures as well as some hail impact throughout the season, Brian Coates, vice president of Sparta’s Applewood Fresh Growers, said he expects the state’s crop volume to fall 20%.

“We are expecting a great quality crop this season,” Coates said. “We have had favorable growing conditions during the summer months. We expect the size profile on our apples to be on the larger side this year.”

New York

The state of New York highlighted on a map of the U.S.

USApple forecasts New York to harvest 31 million bushels, similar to the USDA estimate, slightly higher than 2024 but lower than the 32.4 million bushel five- year average.

“Overall, New York state (NYS) is in good shape for a promotable crop with many touting this is one of the most beautiful crops in recent years,” said Cynthia Haskins, president and CEO for the New York Apple Association in Fishers, New York.

New York Apple Sales in Glenmont began harvesting in early August.

“NYS has a very plentiful, good quality crop,” said Chelsea Van Acker, food safety and grower relations for New York Apple Sales. “We are excited about the quality, size expectations and volume we have to market this season. We have experienced a good growing season with adequate rain and heat throughout the spring and summer across all of NYS. Although there was a freeze event in Western New York in the spring, we see no impact in volume due to the timing of the event and healthy trees. We are very optimistic and energized about the 2024-2025 marketing season.”

Pennsylvania

Pink Ladies are one of the top-producedU.S. apple varieties that are gaining in production. Photo courtesy of Stemilt.
Pink Ladies are one of the top produced U.S. apple varieties that are gaining in production. Photo courtesy of Stemilt.

Pennsylvania’s harvest is estimated to be about average. For Frecon Farms in Boyertown, spring weather was favorable, with groves receiving adequate rain until June’s drought, but July and August picked up, bringing two days of torrential rains. After a “monster crop” last season, the farm expects a medium-sized crop.

“We’ve had gentle weather for the most part other than that June drought,” said Steve Frecon, co-owner of Frecon Farms. “The quality is excellent. I’m very pleased with the quality of the crop. There are certain varieties that didn’t return because they carried such a heavy crop last year.”

Production in other leading states — California, Virginia and Oregon — is expected to be higher than the states’ five-year averages.




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