Aug 23, 2010
2010 apple crop to be smaller than average

By Matt Milkovich, Managing Editor

The size of the U.S. apple crop in 2010 will be 221.5 million bushels.

That’s the estimate the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) came up with Aug. 20, during its annual Apple Crop Outlook & Marketing Conference in Chicago. USApple’s estimate for this year’s crop is smaller than USDA’s estimate of 225.6 million bushels, which was announced the week before.

Both the USDA and USApple estimates are well under 2009’s actual harvest of 236 million bushels, and are smaller than the five-year average of 229 million bushels.

Despite the small crop, speakers at the conference expected a strong market season and a successful year for the U.S. apple industry. Processing prices have been trending downward, but export markets are growing. Apples are the country’s No. 1 fruit export, said Mark Seetin, USApple’s director of regulatory and industry affairs.

In 2009, despite the global economic recession, U.S. apple exports reached a record of 41 million bushels. The 2009 crop was large, with about two-thirds going to the fresh market and the rest to the processed market, said John Teeple, chairman of USApple’s board of directors.

Conference speakers broke down the U.S. estimate by region. They also estimated crop sizes in other countries.

The United States

Production in the eastern United States is dominated by New York state. That state is predicted to yield 27 million bushels this year, down 18 percent from 2009 and down 9 percent from the five-year average. Pennsylvania will yield 10.7 million bushels, down 12 percent from last year and down 6 percent from the five-year average, according to USApple.
The total estimate for eastern states this year is 53.1 million bushels, according to USApple.

According to USApple, states in the Midwest will yield 22.2 million bushels, much smaller than 2009’s yield of 34.3 million bushels. The Midwest crop hinges on Michigan, which will yield 15.5 million bushels this year, compared to 27.4 million bushels last year (a 43 percent decrease). Freezing temperatures around Mother’s Day left growers with a diminished crop.

USApple’s 2010 production estimate for states out west is 146.1 million bushels. Western production hinges on Washington state. USApple lowered the USDA estimate for Washington a little bit, from 134.5 million bushels to 133 million bushels. That’s still up from 2009 and the five-year average, however.
In mid-August, harvest was already underway in California. That state’s apple-growing regions experienced unusually cool weather this year. The estimated size of California’s crop is 7.4 million bushels, up 17 percent from 2009 but 8 percent lower than the five-year average, according to USApple.

The rest of the world

The 2010 apple estimate for Canada is 21 million bushels, slightly smaller than the 2009 crop and 5.4 percent below the five-year average. In British Columbia, however, the crop will be up 25.8 percent, the biggest crop since 2007, according to Don Werden of the Norfolk Fruit Growers’ Association.
Quebec’s crop will be up slightly, to 5.5 million bushels. Ontario’s however, will be down 11.8 percent from last year, at 8.6 million bushels. There were some frost issues, but it will be a clean crop overall, Werden said.

The Mexican crop will be slightly smaller than last year due to frost damage, but will still be up 5 percent from the 10-year average. The 2010 estimate: 494,000 metric tons, or about 19.5 million packed boxes, said Leighton Romney, chief executive officer of Paquime Group.

China is the world’s largest apple-producing country (and just recently became the world’s second-largest economy). In 2009, China yielded about 32 million metric tons of apples, out of a world total of 62 million tons. Its 2010 forecast is down somewhat from last year, at 30.8 million metric tons, according to Michael Choi, president of Zhonglu America Corp.
As living standards in China improve, the demand for fresh apples has gone up – along with the price. Acreage is increasing, especially for a variety like Fuji, which is replacing processing cultivars. Fresh consumption took up 78 percent of the apple crop in 2009. This year, about 366,000 metric tons will be used for apple juice concentrate, Choi said.

The 2010 European harvest estimate is 9.8 million tons, which would be one of the smallest crops in the last decade – 11 percent smaller than last year and 10 percent smaller than the 10-year average. Apple-growing regions in Europe were affected by a cold, wet spring, according to Raquel Izquierdo, who spoke on behalf of the World Apple and Pear Association.




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