Jan 20, 2026

2026 State of the Fruit industry

From the Pacific Northwest’s apple orchards to the Southeast’s blueberry bushes and strawberry beds, most involved in fruit production posted stable to slightly above-average yields in 2025.

Yet beneath that steady production lies a deeper strain: escalating labor costs, unpredictable weather and volatile trade dynamics that continue to redefine profitability and planning.

“Specialty crop producers face persistent challenges in policy, labor and trade,” said Sarah Gonzalez, director of communications and public affairs for the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA). “Tariffs, workforce shortages, and rising cost pressures are at the forefront, and growers are countering these challenges by re-routing exports, upgrading cold chains, and shifting toward regional processing.”

Berry growers saw another year of high consumer demand but tightening returns. The global blueberry sector — spanning Peru, Chile and the U.S. — is moving rapidly toward new genetics and substrate systems to sustain export quality.

Grape and nut producers faced weather-related quality variation and water constraints but remain buoyed by strong global demand and new investment in automation.

Apples continue to provide a reliable foundation for the U.S. fruit industry, though not without headwinds.

“U.S. apple production in 2025 is strong and steady,” said Lynsee Gibbons, director of communications for the U.S. Apple Association. “In August the crop was estimated at roughly 278 million bushels — slightly above average but not record-breaking.”

As the harvest progressed, late-summer heat in the Northwest and drought in the Northeast trimmed yield projections.

“As apples move into storage and packing sheds, it’s clear overall production will likely not be as high as initially anticipated,” Gibbons said.

Automation, AI and biologicals take root

Across specialty crops, growers are re-engineering their operations to adapt with the latest tech and innovation.

AI is moving from theory to practicality, with growers adopting vision systems, robotics and genomics-assisted breeding.

“AI is moving from hype to application,” Gonzalez said. “Farm-level uses range from vision systems and robotics to genomics-assisted breeding and quality assurance.”

She noted that “biological inputs are now mainstream” and used by roughly two-thirds of specialty crop growers “to boost quality, stabilize yields and meet tightening residue limits.”

IFPA is pushing for regulatory clarity to make it easier for growers to integrate biological and reduced-risk chemistries.

For 2026, the association expects broader standardization of biological programs and expanded use of tools such as spore traps, AI scouting and performance-based supplier contracts.

Leading growers are redesigning fields for automation and pairing AI scouting with biologicals to enable earlier, lighter interventions, Gonzalez said. The result: improved quality, reduced inputs and stronger sustainability claims for buyers.

Different regions are innovating at varying speeds. Gonzalez noted that Peru’s blueberry industry is “set for record 2025/26 production” thanks to a rapid shift to new varieties like Ventura and Sekoya Pop.

“For 2026, growers are accelerating replanting, expanding substrate production for higher yields and uniformity and tightening harvest quality controls,” she said.

In California and Australia’s orchards, “autonomous systems for shaking, harvesting, and in-row navigation are gaining investment.” For berries and soft fruit, robotic harvesters are entering commercial use, still supported by human crews for final quality checks.

Health, sustainability, convenience

Consumer behavior offers a silver lining. Health remains a top priority for shoppers with Gonzalez noting that 87% of Americans are concerned about eating healthy and one in four identify fruits and vegetables as essential to maintaining their lifestyle.

Sustainability and convenience are rising priorities as well.

Up to 54% of Americans say they consider sustainability when buying produce. Only 41% of children’s snacks and 29% of adults’ snacks are fruits or vegetables, but 72% say they would choose fruit if it were convenient, Gonzalez said.

Labor costs dominate production decisions

Even solid yields in the past year have been overshadowed by the cost of labor, creating additional challenges.

“Growers are facing significant margin pressure from high labor and input costs, along with softer domestic prices,” Gibbons said. “Labor represents more than 60% of apple production costs.”

She noted that the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) has jumped 30% over five years to $17.74 per hour, with the top apple-producing states averaging $18.67.

Without relief, more family-scale fruit farms may consolidate or exit the market entirely. Yet growers are not standing still.

“We’re seeing major investment in automation — robotic harvesters for strawberries, raspberries and blueberries are gaining traction,” Gonzalez said. “Autonomous orchard systems for nuts and pome fruit are also progressing as growers retrofit rows for machine access.”

Organic growth anchors optimism

Organic sales continue to rise and are a bright spot for fruit growers throughout the country.

“Organic fresh produce hit $21.5 billion in 2024, up 5.2% from the prior year,” said Tom Chapman, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association (OTA). “We expect continued growth of 4.5–5% in 2025 and similar growth in 2026.”

Organic growers, however, feel the strain of labor costs most acutely.

“Given the higher labor intensity of organic, all labor costs disproportionately affect organic producers,” Chapman said. “We’re seeing growing investment in robotics, mechanical weeders, and biological inputs to reduce dependence on labor.”

Trade and tariffs unsettled

Trade uncertainty remains a constant and something everyone in the industry is keeping a close watch on.

“After two decades of steady market growth, U.S. apples lost their foothold almost overnight when India imposed retaliatory tariffs,” Gibbons said. “Although tariffs were removed and apples are flowing again, regaining market share will take time.”

Gonzalez noted IFPA is pushing for trade diversification.

“We remain focused on expanding global produce consumption, lowering trade barriers and ensuring fair competition,” she said. “USDA’s export programs like RAPP (Regional Agricultural Promotion Program) and ASCE (Assisting Specialty Crop Exports) are essential for keeping U.S. specialty crops competitive.”

Chapman added that organic exports, up 16% in 2024, slowed to 3% in 2025.

“Once current trade politics settle, developing Mexico and Asian markets offers the greatest opportunity,” he said.

Climate, research and resilience

Weather volatility is another factor those in the industry are concerned about.

“Specialty crop growers face mounting climate pressures — from drought and extreme weather to shifting pest patterns,” Gonzalez said. IFPA is tackling the challenges “through global advocacy and practical support, including work through the UNFCCC and the Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance.”

When it comes to organics, Chapman noted the segment holds some resilience advantages.

“Organic soil retains more water in times of excess or scarcity, which helps buffer against extreme conditions,” he said.

Looking ahead

For fruit growers, the 2026 playbook blends efficiency with storytelling.

“Suppliers must go beyond price discussions and focus on value,” Gonzalez said.

Gibbons added that with growers increasingly investing in technology and innovation to create efficiencies at every stage of production, it will mean better times to come.

Chapman also sees the broader opportunity.

“Organic produce is well-positioned to be at the nexus of personal and planetary health,” he said.

The industry’s challenge now is executing with precision — financial, operational and in marketing efforts — to keep fruit an everyday staple rather than a luxury.

–Contributing writer Keith Loria

A graduate of the University of Miami, Keith Loria is an award-winning journalist who has been writing for almost 20 years. View his writing at keithloria.contently.com.