Apr 7, 2007

Apple Crop Estimate Down 10 Percent

The U.S. Apple Association (USApple) released its 2005 production forecast during the Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference Aug. 18-19 in Chicago.

It estimated total production in the United States this year at 223.45 million bushels, down 10 percent from last year and down 2 percent from the five-year average.

James Cranney, vice president of USApple, was optimistic about the apple industry’s prospects for the future, despite the lighter crop this year. Recent breakthroughs like the passage of the Central American Free Trade Agreement, McDonald’s agreeing to purchase more apples and the expanding waistlines of Americans have put apples in an excellent position.

“Apples and apple products are positioned perfectly to deal with the obesity issue,” he said. “The possibilities are exciting.”

The Eastern crop is estimated at 53.7 million bushels, down 10 percent from last year’s crop.

“While we don’t see a record crop, we see a good crop,” said Lee Peters, a USApple trustee. “Last year was an exceptional year.”

In New York, the estimate is 25 million bushels, down 18 percent from 2004 but up 4 percent from the five-year average. Pennsylvania’s estimate is 10.5 million bushels, up 9 percent from last year and up 2 percent from the five-year average. In Virginia, the forecast is 6.5 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2004 and down 6 percent from the five-year average. North Carolina’s forecast is 4.1 million bushels, up 11 percent from last year and up 14 percent from the five-year average. West Virginia’s estimate is 1.9 million bushels, down 11 percent from the five-year average.

The Midwest crop is estimated at 27.67 million bushels, up 3 percent from both 2004 and the five-year average. Michigan is forecast at 20 million bushels, up 8 percent from its five-year average.

Michigan is looking at a high-quality crop this year, with excellent size, said Dawn Drake, manager of the Michigan Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Association.

Ohio’s estimate is 2 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2004 and down 4 percent from the five-year average. In Illinois, the estimate is 1.3 million bushels, up 19 percent from its five-year average.

The Western crop is estimated at 142 million bushels, down 12 percent from 2004 and down 3 percent from its five-year average. Washington’s estimate is 126 million bushels, down 13 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the five-year average.

Drought conditions and a lack of labor in certain areas affected the crop size somewhat, growers said.

California’s estimate is 9.7 million bushels, up 5 percent from last year, but down 15 percent from its five-year average.

Temperatures were 100º F or higher for a record 24 days in a row during growing season, but Alex Ott, executive director of the California Apple Commission, anticipated an excellent year. Many growers had overhead cooling, so apple color was not a problem. Also, the heat brought out great sugar in the fruit, giving it a sweet taste, Ott said.

In Oregon, the forecast is 3 million bushels, down 20 percent from last year and down 19 percent from the five-year average. Idaho’s crop estimate is 1.5 million bushels, down 28 percent from 2004 and down 29 percent from its five-year average.

USApple also had estimates for Europe and Canada.

Europe

Production in the major Western European apple-growing countries is forecast at 7.1 million metric tons (372 million bushels) this season.

The 2005 European forecast is 3 percent more than 2004, when production was 7 million metric tons. The projected 2005 crop is 4 percent less than the five-year average.

Of the largest producers, Italian production is forecast to increase by 5 percent from 2004, and French production is forecast to be up 4 percent from the previous year. German production is expected to be down 3 percent, while Spanish production is forecast to increase 21 percent in 2005 compared to 2004. Production from the United Kingdom is expected to increase 12 percent from last year’s crop. In Eastern Europe, Poland is forecast to produce 2.2 million metric tons in 2005 (115 million bushels), 13 percent less than 2004 production and 3 percent less than average production over the last five years. Hungary is expected to produce 489,000 metric tons (25.6 million bushels), a 30 percent decrease from 2004 and 16 percent less than the five-year average, according to USApple.

Canada

Total Canadian apple production from the 2005 crop is forecast at 23 million bushels, a 3 percent decrease from the 2004 harvest. Compared to the five-year average, 2005 production is expected to decrease 8 percent. Ontario production is slated to decrease to 8.3 million bushels in 2005, down 2 percent from 2004 and down 23 percent from the five-year average. British Columbia production is expected to decrease to 6.8 million bushels in 2005, down 1 percent from 2004 but up 3 percent from the five-year average. Quebec production is forecast at 5.3 million bushels in 2005, down 12 percent from 2004 but up 3 percent from the five-year average. Nova Scotia production is estimated at 2.3 million bushels, up 18 percent from 2004 and 3 percent more than the five-year average. In New Brunswick, production is expected to reach 190,000 bushels, down 12 percent from 2004, according to USApple.